There is only one real standard by which a national leader can be judged: did you leave your country better than you found it? By that standard, President of the Russian[i] Federation Vladimir V. Putin was, along with Premier Nikita S. Khrushchev, one of the great leaders of the 20th Century. Khrushchev exhibited enormous physical and moral courage in initiating his country’s long, slow, very painful recovery from Stalinism. Putin took control of Russia when President Boris N. Yeltsin’s policies had brought it to the brink of an abyss such as America has not looked into since the aftermath of our Civil War. He has managed to more-or-less end a simmering war in Chechnya and stabilize his country. But stability within sight of an abyss is no way for a country to live, and so Kremlin-watchers have always wondered what Putin’s second-tenure agenda might be.
We now have an idea.
On 12 December, Putin delivered the President of Russia’s Annual Presidential Address, outlining priority targets for national political and economic development. Analysis of the speech was minimal and very superficial in both the New York Times and the Washington Post, to the point that even though the reporters use recognizable quotes and talking points from the speech, you have to wonder if they even read the thing. (You should, even though it is 11,000 words.) For it is a speech that in its broad outlines any serious American politician would have been proud to give, did he hold his audience in any respect.
It is always possible that this is the completely cynical speech of an utterly corrupt man who will say and do anything to achieve and keep power. But I doubt it. And this is why.
Within the first ten short paragraphs, Putin refers to two individuals by name, references which should have sent any responsible journalist running off to Wikipedia, asking Who are these people? The first name is of Soviet historian, ethnologist and anthropologist Lev N. Gumilev. Lev spent most of the years between 1938 to 1956 for the son of the poets Nikolai S. Gumilev, murdered on 25 August 1921, on the completely fabricated charge of participating in a monarchist conspiracy, and his ex-wife Anna A. Akhmatova. The second person Putin quotes is the writer Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, author of The Gulag Archipelago. Solzhenitsyn served 8 years in the gulag and during the Brezhnev years was subject to intense KGB pressure, culminating in the seizure of his drafts and a botched assassination attempt. He was awarded the Nobel for literature in 1970 and deported from the Soviet Union and stripped of his citizenship in 1974. (He returned to Russia in 1994 and was buried there with honor in 2008.) These references are not tainopis, or secret writing: any half-cultured Russian high school student knows this history.
Putin was a lieutenant colonel in the KGB, the direct, lineal descendent of the NKVD and the Cheka, the secret police of Stalin and before him Lenin that inflicted such harm on Russia during its madness, while the KGB did its own damage under Brezhnev. For such a man to mention those two writers there in the equivalent of a State of the Union speech, is to acknowledge the role your organization played in your country’s madness and all the horror and human waste that followed from that madness. In that context, one of the few positive points of the speech is a mention that the Russian population is finally starting to grow, that births are finally starting to exceed deaths. This has a cultural meaning Americans don’t really grasp. It means that Russians are starting to turn away from all the death and suffering of their recent past. It means that Russians, especially women, believe their children might have a future. It means that more Russian women are finding more Russian men worth breeding from. In Russia. Here in America, a Republican party that supposedly believes in human freedom has attempted to force American women to bear children by resisting equal pay for equal work and restricting women’s access to abortion and contraception. Putin’s policy recommendation to increase female fertility is better, more flexible jobs for women and more and better child care: in short, to increase women’s life options. And he isn’t very subtle in his call for Russians, particularly middle-aged men, to stop killing themselves out of self-pity, which is what eating, drinking, drugging and smoking yourself to death amounts to.
The speech is neither an anti-American rant nor a paean to his past accomplishments at stabilizing a country in chaos. It is a sober, straightforward speech that lays out what Russia will have to do to survive. “Either right now we can open up a lifelong outlook for the young generation to secure good, interesting jobs, to create their own businesses, to buy housing, to build large and strong families and bring up many children, to be happy in their own country, or in just a few decades, Russia will become a poor, hopelessly aged (in the literal sense of the word) country, unable to preserve its independence and even its territory.” That last word means: China. American meddling in Russian internal affairs is an annoyance, an affront to national pride and self-respect. Chinese meddling is a matter of life and death, of territorial integrity and national survival.
When Putin says that “Russia’s unity, integrity and sovereignty are unconditional” he is not particularly referring to the rags of Chechen and Dagestani separatist movements. He is speaking of the Russian Far East: Russia and China fought a border war in 1969 and neither country has forgotten it. Although President Obama would do well to steal Putin’s words, “Any manifestations of separatism and nationalism must be completely removed from the political agenda,” and use those in a speech to Americans. We’ve been there once, we don’t need to go there again and those who propose doing so are not engaged in civilized dialogue.
Speaking of civilized dialoque, Putin says, “Civilised dialogue is possible only with those political forces that make, justify and articulate their demands in a civilised way, defending them in compliance with the law. The change and modernisation of the political system are natural and even necessary, but I have said in the past that it would be inadmissible to allow for the destruction of the state to satisfy this thirst for change.”[ii] This is not a man who says: shut up. This is a man who says, speak like a citizen, in words of meaning and dignity. It is one of Russia’s tragedies that with all the ways Russians now have to communicate with each other and its great literary history, it is a long and graceless distance from Akhmatova to Pussy Riot. And when Putin concludes his words on civilized dialogue by saying, “The whole history of Russia screams about it,” he is saying, we are not going back to people dying screaming. Not even in the name of political change and modernization.
It is a fact that the collapses of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union happened at a time of increasing liberalization. And you don’t have to hold a brief for either the Tsar or the Premier Gorbachev to understand that those consequences had very real, very bad consequences for a lot of human beings who deserved better. Like the collapse of the Kerensky government, the collapse of the Soviet Union was an unmitigated catastrophe. Everything that should have happened—Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe, the independence of the Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and renegotiation of the status and boundaries of the former Soviet Republics (except for the Baltic Republics and Georgia, they are now loosely organized into the Commonwealth of Independent States)—could have happened without the collapse of the Soviet state. When the state collapsed, whole industries vanished, people lost their entire life savings, life expectancy fell due to the collapse of the medical system, as well as people drinking and drugging themselves to death in despair. A massive upsurge in organized crime cost more lives through contract murders and human trafficking, as did a vast increase in disorganized crime—and tolerance thereof—such as street crime and domestic violence. There was also serious ethnic violence ranging from pogroms to border wars.
Few Americans know or care about this. We were too busy congratulating ourselves on the Soviet Union’s collapse. America always maintained that it wasn’t anti-Russian, it was only anti-Communist. And if Russia ever got rid of that damned Communism, we could be friends. Well, they did—and we were very pleased to see them humiliated, powerless, on the verge of famine, an object of our pity and scorn. Western financial institutions also served as a conduit for the wholesale looting of Russian resources.
Putin knows all this. He also knows that—all the screeching by conservative commentators aside—in Western Europe, Marxism helped create the welfare state but the attempt to import Marxism into Russia led to the Gulag, the famines, the purges. The issue, then, was not Marxism but Russia: Putin may love Russia and Russian culture very much, but even a child’s understanding of Russian history leads one to realize that as Solzhenitsyn himself once very uncharacteristically admitted, this wolf comes from our own blood. One significant reason for Russia’s descent into Communist madness was that while it was liberalizing before the First World War, serfdom’s very long, slow abolition, the power of the nobility and the collusion of the Russian Orthodox Church with the nobility meant that its intellectual and material culture was very low. A good education, sincere appreciation for genuine beauty and a life of material dignity will prevent an awful lot of moral trouble and those were missing from the broad base of Russian society, urban or rural. Add to that cultural background Russia’s dreadful losses during World War One and the savagery of the Civil War, and you have a recipe for catastrophe. That much killing and suffering coarsens and brutalizes people—in any culture. And it takes a long time for that culture to recover.
So any attempt to modernize and liberalize Russia means that Russia has to look within itself, cultivate its best and deal with its worst: it can borrow from other cultures and political systems for its own use but those any cultural borrowings must be viewed through the prism of its culture. Russia cannot be a cheap knock-off of America; these years, America these years is a cheap knock-off of our past and what we could be in the future and it’s been very bad for us; our model would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Russia. In her New York Times op-ed, “Backtracking in Russia,” Lyudmilla Alexeyevna—who is the grand old woman of Russia’s human rights movement—writes, “I am absolutely certain they mean to send a signal across the country that we should all re-grow our forgotten Soviet instincts of fear and wariness of foreigners.” But as much harm as foreign invasions and financial institutions have done to Russia, and as great a threat as China poses to Russia, one significant concern any half-decent Russian president must have is the real harm Russians have done to other Russians—including in the aftermath of Communism. While China in particular would be ready to exploit that harm. A little fear of that is wise, prudent, humane.
The means Putin says he is choosing to modernize and liberalize Russia are, in the context of recent American history, conservative. It is an article of faith in political science that a large-broad-based middle class is the key to democracy. It has long been gospel in the Republican Party that education, hard work and home ownership made people more conservative, natural Republican voters. Putin says he want to greatly expand the Russian middle class by creating some 25 million good jobs and making decent housing affordable to people of average and below-average means. He also wants to strengthen Russia’s educational system by supporting “the revival of provincial intelligentsia [“doctors, teachers, university educators, workers in science and culture”], which was once Russia’s professional and moral backbone.” He is, in short, proposing to make good education and a materially dignified life widely available to average Russians, including in Russia’s vast and often poor provinces.
This is not about creating a new Soviet man. This is about raising the standards by which Russians treat each other and live. This is about creating a broad, deep foundation for a serious civil society upon which a democracy can be built. And for that reason, Putin explicitly proposes moving away from Russia’s current extractive economy: “A lopsided raw materials economy, as has been pointed out on many occasions, is not just vulnerable to external shocks. Most importantly, it does not allow for developing and putting to adequate use human potential; it is incapable of giving most of our people the opportunity to make use of their strengths, talents, labour and education, which means, by definition, that it breeds inequality.”
So far, I’ve pulled quotes from the speech in a rather linear manner. Now to loop back to the second way Putin proposes to build this civil society.
He says that ordinary Russians must make common cause against “poor government efficiency and corruption”: “Public opinion must become the main criterion for assessing the effectiveness of state bodies that provide public services as well as institutions in the social sphere.”
A model of bureaucratic reform is laid out, reform that includes “limiting the rights of state officials and politicians [as well as “their immediate families”] to hold foreign accounts, stocks and shares” while “the ownership of foreign real estate…must be declared in accordance with the law, and the official must submit a report on the cost of the property and the origin of the funds used to purchase it.”
Not only did Putin provoke a number of small heart attacks with that statement, he earned a number of deadly enemies. He proceeds to make more when he spoke of reducing the number of people exercising regulatory oversight, introducing public reports by oversight agencies, and “monitoring the expenditures and major acquisitions of civil servants, executives of state companies and their close relatives”. He did not even need to discuss tax reform and reversing the off-shoring of Russia’s economy, although he does. The sums at stake are worth killing over.
Generally speaking, sane politicians do not make the number of deadly enemies Putin acquired with those passages, in order to score cheap political points. To read this speech is to enter the realm of meaningful language: Russia is not America, where we can say anything we want, provided it is sufficiently outrageous. And there are a lot of things you can call Putin—ruthless, cynical, perhaps not a nice man the way Americans wish to be nice—but stupid and naive are not two of them.
And yet the reactions to this speech have been—demonstrations. One of the leaders has been Aleksei Navalny, who founded the website Roszkh, which simplifies the process of complaining about the wretched maintenance of the public areas of apartment buildings. (In America, these areas would be covered by home owner’s association fees and while Russians also pay fees to maintain them, these areas are public, state, property. The flats themselves are private property.) As Mr. Navalny likes to point out—and quite rightly—this means that broken light bulbs and the like are the problems of United Russia, Putin’s party. (Source here.) His website has helped significantly improve building maintenance in the few weeks it has been in operation and Putin devoted an entire paragraph to this: “Active civic participation and effective public monitoring are necessary conditions for effectively fighting corruption. Today, many citizens are already building a system of public control at the municipal level on their own initiative, including for the housing and utilities sector. We are obligated to support this this type of attitude. Just recently, the day before yesterday, we spoke on this topic at a meeting with election campaign activists.”
In American terms, this is the equivalent of inviting Navalny to attend the State of the Union speech, then telling his story: it’s not an olive branch, it’s an entire wreath of olive branches. To quote Navalny: “We are trying to attract people who can fight corruption together with us…It’s clear that an ordinary person has a hard time helping us fight corruption at Gazprom [the big state energy company]…[b]ut unfortunately in Russia, corruption surrounds a person everywhere. We are trying to create a mechanism for people to fight corruption themselves.”
The problem is that corruption cannot be fought with demonstrations. It has to be fought the way Navalny himself is doing: the daily pressure of ordinary people on other ordinary people to do the right thing, one thing at a time. It’s not sexy, it’s not glamorous, it takes energy and drive and determination and sometimes shouting at people. It is not only refusing to take bribes, it is refusing to pay bribes. Or as was quoted in the article liked to above, “People long ago stopped coming to these because of euphoria,” said Zhenya Devyatkina, 30. Instead they show up now out of a sense of duty, she said, “sort of like going to work.”
But that is what government is: work, not euphoria. Especially the work that goes into the constant refusal to accept—or pay; this cannot be stressed enough—bribes. And if people were to take Putin’s speech seriously, “opposition bloggers” like Navalny—a real estate lawyer—would be out of a job in the sense of, they couldn’t mug for cameras. They might have a real job, running a serious department of civil servants—but that’s a different thing altogether. Or to quote Chekov, Any idiot can meet a crisis, it’s the day-to-day living that wears you out.
When Putin delivered this particular speech, he was operating on the premise that a lot of Russians would be willing to face the day-to-day living. Might be cynical enough and compromised enough and tired enough of corruption to find the day-to-day, wearing-out of integrity a way to recover themselves and begin the process not of stabilizing their country—that has been done—but making their country and their lives what they ought to be. We do not know. Pundits risk little—and doubt it not, Putin risked his life when he made that speech. People died for far less in the Yeltsin years. In other words, for all the work Putin had to do—the gathering of resources, the making of alliances, the deal-making—just in order to be able to deliver that speech and have a chance of implementing it, his agenda has no hope without widespread, day-to-day support by average Russians. Putin may realistically think he can bank on that support, he may think it’s a risk he can survive, he may be straight-out gambling, but there is no serious media coverage of Russia for us to be able to estimate that.
We only know two things.
The American left, when it thinks of Putin at all, does not like him: he is too tough, too plain-spoken to go down easy. He stabilized his country within sight of an abyss, prevented Chechnya from breaking away, brought Russian organized crime under some measure of control, and reestablished the Russian state. These are not the accomplishments of a saint or anyone likely to ever be admitted to their communion. Also, he’s just a tiny little bit arrogant. While the American right hates him because—for all the unsavory things implicit in those accomplishments—he is not a monster. He just might be the best tsar Russia has ever had, determined to bring his country into the modern world as part of civilization.
There’s a third thing we know about this speech. It’s worth reading, highlighting the parts that apply to America, and sending to our elected representatives. Because its subject is: how to create a democracy of citizens from a nation that has been through the depths.
[i] Throughout this essay, I use the term Russia or Russian in several ways. The first is to refer to the Russian federation and before that the Russian empire—or a resident of the Federation or that empire, regardless of actual ethnicity. In that sense, I also refer to the Soviet Union as a Russian state because it was not only the successor to the Russian Empire, but also very Russian in terms of the dominant ethnicity.
[ii] All spellings are in the original, using British rather than American English.